The Sustainable Development Institute carries out applied research projects. Funding is typically provided for a specific purpose. While our interest continues in each of these areas, these projects have successfully met their project deadlines and objectives.
Economic Impact of the Proposed Mariana Trench Marine National Monument
In 2008, a consortium of non-profit groups, led by the Pew Environmental Group, promoted the Ocean Legacy Project. Among several massive sites that were under consideration for protected areas to preserve the ocean's resources was a site located in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Dr. Iverson conducted an economic impact study of the proposed monument. Results are available in his report at (click on report link and wait...it is a large PDF file:
STAR 2006
Sponsored by the Guam Visitors Bureau, the STAR project analyzed responses to a survey of resident attitudes towards tourism. This approach is used typically every 3-5 years to keep a finger on the pulse of local opinion and is recommended as an integral part of a tourism information system.
Data Aggregation Project for FY 1996
In fiscal year 1996 (October 1, 1995 through September 30, 1996), the Guam Visitors Bureau conducted eleven separate "exit surveys" with departing visitors. Four of these were with visitors from Japan, three with visitors from Korean, and two each for samples from Taiwan and the combined U.S. Mainland/Hawaii market.
While these surveys are very similar in construction, some cultural differences necessitated slight changes in response categories or in the formulation of the questions (surveys are translated into the appropriate language). The Data Aggregation Project examines each data set and adjusts variables to conform to standard definitions, checks for outliers in the data, and produces a master data set comprising comparable statistics from each "national" sample. Results from this project are included in period reports prepared on the different market segments.
This project was funded by the Guam Visitors Bureau.
Forecasting Visitor Arrivals to Guam (Forecasting Project #1)
The key to Guam's economic development is its tourism sector. An important indicator related to the industry is the monthly arrival total. In 1996 the SDI examined a wide range of models and selected a time series decomposition model as the best performing model with the least error.
To forecast into the future assumptions must be made about the cyclical nature of the time series. The 1997 forecast provided two models with slightly different assumptions. As the year progressed, actual arrivals tracked between the two forecasts for several months.
The "Best Fit" model was used to produce a blind forecast of the last four months of the year. This was the first time series decomposition model developed to forecast tourism on Guam. A complete report from this project is available from the Guam Visitors Bureau (use our Links button).
The model development was funded by the Guam Visitors Bureau.
Data Aggregation Project for FY 1997
This was the most ambitious of the aggregation projects to date. Thirteen separate data sets containing information from "exit surveys" conducted with visitors to Guam were aligned and integrated into a master data set.
Surveys were conducted in Japanese, Korean, Chinese and English with visitors from Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Hawaii, and the U.S. Mainland.
The resulting "Master Report" provided summary information on many of the variables in this rich data set.
This project was funded by the Guam Visitors Bureau. For information regarding this report, please contact the Guam Visitors Bureau Research Department.
"Forecasting II Project"
This project extended the time series decomposition model (developed in "Forecasting I") by separately modeling Japanese and Korean arrivals. Also, an econometric model was developed for each of these market segments.
The objective of these projects is to provide baseline economic analysis for models that may be refined in subsequent years. The econometric models introduced in this project performed quite well in comparison to the time series models. The complete report from this project is available from the Guam Visitors Bureau or Tom Iverson. Selected results were published in:
Ismail, Joseph A., Thomas J. Iverson, and Liping A. Cai (2000). "Forecasting Japanese Arrivals to Guam – An Empirical Model" Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing, 7(2): 51-64.
This project was funded by the Guam Visitors Bureau.
Expenditure-based segmentation: Taiwanese tourists to Guam
This unfunded project was initiated by Connie Mok, who is with the Conrad N. Hilton College of Hotel and Restaurant Management, University of Houston. Dr. Mok was interested in the data collected by the Guam Visitors Bureau; this resulted in a collaboration and the eventual publication of our co-authored paper.
Mok, Connie & Thomas J. Iverson (2000). “Expenditure-based segmentation: Taiwanese tourists to Guam,” Tourism Management, 21(3): 299-305.
Data Aggregation Project for FY 1998
Twelve separate data sets containing information from "exit surveys" conducted with visitors to Guam were aligned and integrated into a master data set.
Surveys were conducted in Japanese, Korean, Chinese and English with visitors from Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Hawaii, and the U.S. Mainland.
The resulting "Master Report" provided summary information on many of the variables in this rich data set.
This project was funded by the Guam Visitors Bureau. For information regarding this report, please contact the Guam Visitors Bureau Research Department.
Data Aggregation Project for FY 1999
Eleven separate data sets containing information from "exit surveys" conducted with visitors to Guam were aligned and integrated into a master data set.
Surveys were conducted in Japanese, Korean, Chinese and English with visitors from Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Hawaii, and the U.S. Mainland.
The resulting "Master Report" provided summary information on many of the variables in this rich data set.
This project was funded by the Guam Visitors Bureau. For information regarding this report, please contact the Guam Visitors Bureau Research Department.
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